Exploring the use of Artificial Intelligence for flood forecasting in Scotland
Flooding is a growing concern in Scotland with climate change increasing the risk and frequency of extreme events. In Scotland, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) is the body responsible for flood forecasting. Accurate flood forecasting plays a vital role in helping communities prepare, respond, and stay safe. This DelugeAI project explored how Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) could improve SEPA’s flood forecasting capabilities.The project led by the University of Strathclyde reviewed recent research, studied real-world applications, and consulted international experts and industry leads to find out how AI/ML is supporting current forecasting tools and what are the implementation challenges. The review was framed around seven stages in the flood forecasting chain, from monitoring to generating early warnings.
Based on the review, the team undertook a feasibility study to establish how easily AI/ML can be implemented into SEPA’s current operations. It highlighted that the strongest opportunities are in improving early warnings and supporting decision making. In an operational setting, AI/ML is likely to be most useful when it works alongside traditional forecasting approaches, rather than replacing them. AI/ML can also help integrate enhanced weather forecasts, improve data collection in remote areas, and calibrate existing forecasting models. However, these advanced uses will require more time, investment, and careful testing before a final decision on their adoption can be made.
Drawing from these findings, this DelugeAI project recommends that, subject to wider value for money tests, SEPA take a phased approach starting with introducing simple AI tools, including generative AI, then building to improve early warning and decision support systems. It also highlights the need for clear communication, good quality data, and ongoing human oversight to ensure forecasts remain trustworthy and effective.
By responsibly integrating AI and ML technologies, Scotland can strengthen its flood forecasting capabilities, protect communities more effectively, and build resilience in the face of a changing climate.
Scottish One Health AMR Register (SOHAR): Updated research insights
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) occurs when bacteria, viruses, fungi or other microbes change in ways that stop medicines, like antibiotics, from working properly. This makes infections harder to treat and increases the risk of them spreading, lasting longer, or becoming more serious.
The Scottish One Health AMR Register (SOHAR) brings together AMR-related research involving Scottish researchers and organisations. It shows how Scotland is contributing to national efforts and helps identify where more work is needed.
The 2025 SOHAR update reviewed 952 research publications and projects that were published or active between July 2021 and May 2025. It found evidence of progress in areas such as innovation, antimicrobial stewardship, and environmental AMR. Scotland also continues to contribute to AMR surveillance across sectors and plays an active role in UK-wide transdisciplinary AMR networks. However, several areas remain underrepresented, including animal health, food systems, behaviour change, public awareness, health inequalities, and translating research innovation into practice.
To build on Scotland’s progress, five key actions are recommended: i) maintain regular updates to SOHAR; ii) improve SOHAR’s accessibility and utility; iii) use SOHAR to monitor Scotland’s progress on AMR research goals; iv) invest in underrepresented research areas; and v) support transdisciplinary research to strengthen links between knowledge, policy, practice, and innovation.
CREW News Summer 2025
Welcome to the summer edition of our quarterly newsletter, CREW NEWS! In this edition we are shining a spotlight on some of our recently published projects, highlighting a successful project workshop and hearing from our Director, Rachel Helliwell.
We'd love to hear what you'd be interested in reading in future issues of CREW NEWS.
Scottish Marine Habitats Could Help Tackle Coastal Flooding and Erosion
A recently published project funded by the Centre of Expertise for Waters (CREW) has shown that Scotland’s coastal habitats, such as kelp forests and seagrass beds, could play a bigger role in protecting communities from flooding and erosion.
As storms grow stronger and more frequent, and sea levels rise, natural solutions which complement current coastal defences are being explored. Researchers at Heriot-Watt University used computer models to investigate how well four key habitats (kelp, seagrass, oyster reefs and blue mussel beds) reduce wave energy and support coastal resilience. Of these, kelp forests were found to be the most effective, with the potential to reduce wave heights by up to 70% in parts of the Outer Hebrides.
The study also produced detailed maps of where these habitats exist and explored how restoration efforts could improve coastal protection. While restoration has potential, the researchers highlight that protecting existing habitats, especially those near vulnerable communities, should be a priority.
With growing interest in nature-based solutions, the findings support a shift toward using marine ecosystems as part of Scotland’s coastal defence strategy. However, further data, careful planning, and long-term investment are needed to make this a reality.
The research team recommended integrating habitat protection into policy, encouraging sustainable harvesting practices, and involving local communities in monitoring efforts.
View the full project outputs here.
CREW would like to thank the research team (Heriot-Watt) and the Project Steering Group (SEPA, NatureScot, Food Standard Scotland and Scottish Government) for their dedication and support to the project and in addressing this important issue.
Restoring River Woodlands for Healthier Rivers and Resilient Communities
Restoring river woodlands, trees and forests alongside rivers, streams and lochs, is gaining momentum across Scotland. These habitats are vital for improving water quality, reducing flood and drought risks, supporting biodiversity, and boosting community wellbeing. Yet over half of Scotland’s riverbanks are in poor condition, and efforts to restore them still face major challenges.
To help address these challenges, a new study funded by the Centre of Expertise for Waters set out to identify which knowledge, tools and actions are needed to support river woodland restoration across the country. Led by researchers from the James Hutton Institute and the University of Aberdeen, the team reviewed a decade of scientific research and engaged over 115 experts and stakeholders from across sectors.
The findings revealed strong support for river woodland restoration, but also highlighted that knowledge is not always being turned into action. Stakeholders pointed to funding gaps, limited collaboration, and a lack of practical guidance as key barriers.
In particular, the study found that while there is good evidence for the benefits of river woodlands in areas like water quality and biodiversity, more research is needed on topics such as tree placement for managing low river flows, selecting drought-resistant species, and understanding public attitudes to restoration. Stakeholders also called for tools that can assess the overall impact of river woodlands, not just single issues.
A workshop held as part of the project brought together experts to prioritise the most pressing knowledge gaps. Top recommendations included better coordination across policies, expanding funding options (including through nature markets), improving long-term monitoring, and increasing knowledge-sharing across sectors.
With researchers combining insights from literature reviews, surveys, workshops, and consultations to produce a final set of recommendations. These outputs aim to guide future investment, research, and restoration efforts. By aligning scientific evidence with stakeholder priorities, the project provides a strong foundation for more coordinated and effective river woodland restoration across Scotland.
This work builds on initiatives such as Riverwoods and aligns with Scotland’s wider environmental goals, including climate adaptation and biodiversity targets. By bridging the gap between evidence and action, it aims to support healthier rivers and more resilient landscapes for the benefit of nature and communities across Scotland.
CREW would like to thank the research team (James Hutton Institute and University of Aberdeen) and the Project Steering Group (SEPA, Scottish Wildlife Trust, Scottish Water, Scottish Forestry, Forest Research, NatureScot, and Scottish Government) for their dedication and support to the project and in addressing this important issue.
View the full project outputs here.
Prioritising research and development gap opportunities for river woodlands
River woodlands (RW) play a crucial role in protecting river ecosystems, for example by reducing flooding, storing carbon, filtering pollution, and benefiting local communities. However, nearly 55% of surveyed riverbank in Scotland show poor RW health. This highlights a need for RW restoration. While RW initiatives like Riverwoods are gaining traction, scaling them up remains challenging. In 2022, Riverwoods conducted a review of existing research on RW benefits, identifying 60 key knowledge gaps. However, that review did not consider the perspectives of different stakeholders such as policymakers, landowners, businesses, and conservation groups. Our project builds on that work by updating the scientific review and incorporating stakeholder priorities. Many policies support RW restoration, including the Scottish Biodiversity Strategy, Forestry policies, and the National Adaptation Plan. However, more work is needed to turn knowledge into practical guidance for policymakers, businesses, conservation groups, and other stakeholders.
This project aimed to:
- Review existing research to assess the strength of evidence on RW benefits and identify remaining knowledge gaps.
- Engage stakeholders (academics, policymakers, businesses, and environmental groups) to determine research priorities and practical needs for RW restoration.
- Find solutions to address these gaps and support investment in RW projects.
CRW2023_02 Prioritising R&D gap opportunities for river woodlands - Main report- CRW2023_02 Prioritising R&D gap opportunities for river woodlands - Policy Brief
- CRW2023_02 Prioritising R&D gap opportunities for river woodlands - Project summary
- CRW2023_02 Appendix 1 - Survey and workshop report
- CRW2023_02 Appendix 2 - Interview report
- CRW2023_02 Appendix 3 - Policy focus group report
- CRW2023_02 Appendix 4 - Monitoring focus group report
- CRW2023_02 Appendix 5 - Funding consultation report
CRW2023_02 Appendix 6 - Database
The effect of shellfish, kelp and sea grass beds on flood risk and coastal erosion in Scotland
Coastal flooding and erosion are increasing problems around the Scottish coastline resulting from climatic changes such as increased storm frequency and intensity, as well as rising sea levels. These pose risks to human life, infrastructure and properties, with negative consequences for the national economy. Besides ecosystem services such as habitat for threatened and commercial species, fisheries production, nutrient cycling, sediment stabilisation, water purification and carbon storage, marine vegetation canopies and shellfish habitats can dampen waves and currents, with the possibility of reducing risk of coastal flooding and erosion. However, there is a lack of consolidated information relating to the distribution and extent of such habitats at a national scale. In addition, evaluation of the potential for Natural Flood Management (NFM) by these habitats in a Scottish context has not been done. The project set out to address these knowledge gaps by focusing on 4 key habitats: kelp forests; seagrass beds; oyster reefs; and blue mussel beds.
The project aimed to evaluate how well selected shallow marine habitats (specifically kelp forests, seagrass beds, oyster reefs and blue mussel beds) protect the Scottish coastline from erosion and flooding. Consequently, a secondary aim was to assess the need and feasibility for protection and/or restoration of these habitats in relation to their potential role in Natural Flood Management (NFM) and erosion control. The following research tasks were undertaken:
1. Gathering and standardising available information on the location and extent around Scotland’s coast of the 4 habitats.
2. Predicting the reduction of waves and wave run-up by the 4 habitats using recently developed computer simulations.
3. Applying these predictions to specific Scottish locations to assess the degree of flood and erosion control by these habitats.
4. Acquiring information from stakeholders through a workshop to inform the project direction.
5. Assessing the effects of harvesting on the 4 habitats.
6. Assessing the potential for coastal protection through restoration of the 4 habitats.
Valuing Nature: How Cost-Benefit Analysis is Helping Shape Scotland’s Water and Soil Policy
Two projects commissioned by CREW have demonstrated the value of cost-benefit analysis in tackling environmental challenges, helping policymakers balance ecological protection with economic realities.
The first project, ‘Assessing the socio-economic impacts of soil degradation on Scotland’s water environment’ revealed that compacted soils alone cost Scottish farmers over £25 million per year in lost yields and increased fuel use. When additional impacts such as flooding, pollution, and biodiversity loss are considered, the national economic cost could exceed £70 million annually. These findings underline the importance of preventing soil degradation—not only for agricultural productivity but also for protecting water quality and reducing flood risks.
The second project, ‘Environmentally effective and cost-efficient sediment management at impoundments’, evaluated the cost-effectiveness of different catchment management approaches, such as tree planting along rivers and peatland restoration. Using survey responses from nearly 1,000 people, the analysis found that these nature-based interventions delivered clear economic and environmental benefits, reducing the frequency of costly sediment removal and improving river health.
These studies show how cost-benefit analysis can enhance evidence-based decision making. By quantifying both financial and ecological impacts, this approach helps ensure that environmental policies continue to deliver strong outcomes for people, landscapes, and climate resilience in Scotland.
For more information on the projects, including their cost-benefit analyses, please visit the publication pages linked above.
CREW would like to thank the research teams for both projects (The James Hutton Institute, SRUC, University of Aberdeen, University of Glasgow and CBEC eco-engineering) and the Project Steering Group (SEPA, NatureScot, Scottish Canals and Scottish Government) for their dedication and support to the project and in addressing this important issue.
CRW2025_01 Household flood plans in Scotland – applying behavioural learnings to inform best practice and uptake
Type of project: Capacity Building Project
Overview: CREW invites proposals for a capacity building project which applies behavioural science evidence to produce a household flood plan template and considers future actions to support uptake.
Budget: Funding available: £95,000 exclusive of VAT (where applicable).
Project Status: Project in procurement.
Call dates: Thursday 5th June – Wednesday 9th July, midday.
For more details, please view the project specification.
If you would like to submit a proposal, please use the CREW capacity building application form.
GUIDANCE & DOCUMENTATION
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- All non-confidential queries and answers will be published on this website.
- All applications should be submitted by email to procurement@crew.ac.uk before the deadline.
- CREW Funding Terms and Conditions have been provided to all eligible Higher Education Institutes and Research Institutes.
- Please see FAQs for further information.
News
Understanding Scotland’s Role in Tackling Antimicrobial Resistance
A Changing AMR Landscape
A recent CREW stakeholder workshop brought together researchers, policymakers, industry experts, regulators and other environmental professionals to explore how Scotland is contributing to the fight against antimicrobial resistance (AMR). This workshop marked a key stage in the ongoing CREW project which builds on the findings from an earlier CREW project and involves updating the previously developed Scottish One-Health Antimicrobial Resistance Register (SOHAR) database. The SOHAR project team is led by Professor Fiona Henriquez-Mui at the University of Strathclyde but also involves leading academics in the area from Glasgow Caledonian, UWS, SRUC and JHI and is supported by the Scottish Government, SEPA and CREW. Furthermore, this project supports the UK’s AMR National Action Plan (2024–2029).
So far, the project team has carried out a rapid review of publicly available research and project data related to AMR. They’ve identified over 650 relevant publications and 250 projects with links to Scotland so far, covering a wide range of topics, from clinical AMR and antimicrobial stewardship to environmental transmission and emerging innovations. The refreshed register will feature new categories such as biosecurity, AI tools, and risk management, reflecting the evolving landscape of AMR research and helping inform decision-making across sectors.
Breakout Session 1 – AMR Community in Action
The first breakout discussion revealed the breadth of activity underway, from community pharmacy and hospital stewardship to environmental monitoring, climate-related risks, and agricultural practices. Participants also highlighted growing areas of focus such as aquaculture, biosensor innovation, and public awareness. A strong theme throughout was the importance of behaviour change, whether in prescribing, farming, or public engagement. The workshop showed just how interconnected AMR is across sectors, reinforcing the need for a One Health approach.
Breakout Session 2 – Shaping SOHAR
In the second breakout session, participants discussed how to improve the Scottish One Health AMR Register to ensure it is as useful and accessible as possible. Suggestions included adding more detailed metadata, such as sample locations, methods, and organisms studied, as well as clearer links to policy relevance and potential impacts. Others highlighted the importance of supporting collaboration across disciplines, sectors, and institutions, especially where AMR research overlaps with environmental monitoring, public health, and clinical care. There was also strong interest in using the register to support better communication, both among researchers and with the public, and in exploring partnerships with agencies to address overlooked risks such as tourist waste. These discussions reinforced the value of the register not just as a repository of information, but as a tool for shaping future research, policy, and public engagement.
Looking Ahead: From Evidence to Action
As the workshop drew to a close, there was a shared sense of energy and enthusiasm. Participants emphasised the importance of using this resource to drive behaviour change, improve public communication, and support practical decision-making across sectors. Ideas ranged from including a directory of stakeholders to highlighting links between AMR and wider health and sustainability issues, such as housing and the UN Sustainable Development Goals. With over 670 publications and 200 projects mapped to national priorities, the next phase will focus on finalising the database, producing a policy brief and a plain English summary which will all be available on the CREW publication page on completion. By turning data into action, this work aims to help shape Scotland’s response to antimicrobial resistance for years to come.
CREW would like to thank the research team (University of Strathclyde, Glasgow Caledonian, University of the West of Scotland, SRUC and JHI) and the Project Steering Group (SEPA and Scottish Government) for their dedication and support to the project and in addressing this important issue.
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